Bitcoin has just taken the single biggest day dip that it’s had in years
Bitcoin has just taken the single biggest day dip that it’s had in years technically this happened over two days I guess but 51 percent to the bottom over 50 percent in 24 hours 63 percent if you’re measuring from the local top that we had about three weeks ago 63 percent you know what this looks like to me about four years ago back in August of 2016 I’m gonna make a comparison to four years ago it’s not exactly the same I get that you know the dip back here not as severe I get that but there are some similarities for instance the market structure looks similar besides that just like today in 2020 back here in 2016 this was about a year after the market had been going up for a little over a year a lot of people were suspicious back in 2016 of the this first rally right here see this first rally in 2016 was caused because a lot of people bought into a Ponzi scheme so people weren’t sure if it was leave of, if it was legitimate so this second rally the one I’m comparing it to people felt a little bit better about this one because you know they just put a little bit more of their trust and boom shakeout just like we have today yet after this Bitcoin never went that low again.
I was disheartened to see a 50% shakeout in Bitcoin of course I was disheartened did I ever think of selling did I ever think of capitulating no I honestly didn’t the fundamentals for Bitcoin are still there, you know that the better question is if Bitcoin is supposed to be this uncorrelated asset Hey bitcoins supposed to be this hedge what the hell is going on hedges are not supposed to do this and the global markets are tanking all across the world if Bitcoin was ever gonna be a hedge wouldn’t now let’s see.
Comparing 2008 global financial crisis
I want to bring you back now to twelve years ago this was before Bitcoin even existed so we need to go to traditional markets I’m talking of course about a special time in financial history and that was the 2008 global financial crisis many people consider the 2008 global financial crisis to be the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression now that’s of course before 2020 but everything in 2008 tanked including the hedge gold did you know that gold also suffered a massive dip in 2008 despite the fact that it truly is an uncorrelated hedge why did that happen gold is supposed to be the hedge well I mean Gold probably dipped for you know a multitude of reasons it’s probably most likely you know there’s fear and negativity in the air in 2008 maybe some people needed cash maybe hedge funds were managing their money overall I think it was just because there was a lot of fear and negativity in the world at this time but guess what gold is a hedge a few months passed and gold went right back up and you know the year passed and it went right back up and pretty soon gold was rallying higher than ever so the point is even hedges are susceptible to massive sell off so hopefully just like gold in 2008 hopefully we see Bitcoin rallying backup as well it’s not just me who thinks that by the way Ari Paul is the chief investment officer for an investment firm and he thinks something similar he says he says I’ve had a really simple mental model for Bitcoin in a severe equity sell-off that’s been unchanged since literally 2006 look at gold heading into during and coming out of the 2008 financial crisis I think that’s Bitcoin this time around and that’s what I think.